We are always in systematic and structural crisis therefore in crisis/recession/transfer and this one continues because year 2015 is the continuity of year 2014 on the economic, financial and social plans, while looking like in the previous years but in more critical. So this year 2015 will see other major events as well as deep transformations. These events will have repercussions beyond this year 2015. The current and not ended programs (in class and not ended) by "restructuring" of the world Economy have not yet reached their ends, as specified previously.
The words were drafted at the beginning of the year 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 are always effective and accessible by the following links :
. YEAR 2009 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202009
. YEAR 2010 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202010
. YEAR 2011 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202011
. YEAR 2012 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202012
. YEAR 2013 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202013
. YEAR 2014 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202014
Year 2015 can be summarized in the following way taking into account the chronology of the events announced previously then arisen during 2009, 2010, 2011, on 2012, 2013, 2014 in this crisis/recession/transfer :
. crisis of the US financial imbalance.
. pulling a crisis on the confidence in the dollar $US.
. oil crisis.
. crisis of the World Arabo-Musulman.
. crisis of the American "leadership".
. crisis of the World Governance.
. crisis of the European Governance.
This crisis/recession/transfer began rightly in the end of April - the beginning of May, 2000 and not in September-October, 2008 as some people claim it and as we already write it for many years ... : the major crisis of 2008 is only " the consequence of the consequence of the consequences " of the break between the new Economy based on the new technologies of Information and the Communication, the Digital technology, trying to take " the relay " of the Traditional Economy.
The Internet, beyond its contribution to the globalization of economies and to the ease of the trade, connects "de facto" all of the Humanity in " an organic society " thanks to a totally different "system-network" traditional pyramidal systems inherited from the previous centuries and on which are always based our "systems" socio-politico-administrativo-instituti national, international, supranational. Faced with the current Globalization for decades, it would have been necessary "to balance" thanks to the "Regionalism" and to the "Regionalization" jointly, but this is another subject. See thanks to the link according to what we already announced in 1991-1992 :
Le Québec à la croisée des chemins - Québec - CANADA
In this multipolar World, China became the first world power so supplanting the United States of America. As for Europe : it continues to look for itself and over the period 2009-2014, they are five years of lost opportunities with the BRICS ! The cooperation between Europe and BRICS would have allowed to commit a dynamics of systematic and structural reform of the Institutions of the World Governance in the direction of an adaptation to the new realities of this multipolar World ...
The Ukrainian crisis is a dramatic blow carried in the link EURO-BRICS and in the emergence of this multipolar World. This crisis will be " the catalyst " of conflicts in gestation and not resolved. Beyond the confrontation between the U.S.A. and Russia , even China, the conflict Europe - Russia is not to be ruled out, quite on the contrary, in this rising multipolar World. This conflict is the result of the overlapping between two economic unions, preceded by a cold War. And the rise of the tensions in Ukraine will impact on the increase of the gas price. Year 2015 will have in the background :
. the extension and the dramatization of the tensions and the conflicts in which the energy, the oil and the gas, appear as the major parameters.
. the acceleration of adaptation policies in the new geopolitical, geostrategic, economic, scientific, technological data, this within the framework of the energy transition. So, it is the Middle East, Ukraine, Libya, certain regions of Africa, that will quite hold attention. See in this connection the Note drafted in November 2000 by the following link, the paragraph 06 :
(...) A better approach to strategic and technological breakpoints with a view to Economic Forecasting and Prediction (...) - November 23 th, 2000"
Yet, it is a question of facing increasing demands of energy, domestic or international, while freeing itself from a dependence slowing down the capacities of development and the autonomy of the politics. This will lead inevitably to tensions and conflicts ! From then on, these tensions and conflicts will pull a transformation of the energy landscapes therefore the international relations and consequently Alliances : will be particularly concerned Russia, as major energy actor, and Europe, as privileged partner ... and the Mediterranean with the resources of still underestimated hydrocarbons being the object of bitter greeds. What will be the cooperations and the perspectives ? In the big "displeasure" of the U.S.A. ? So, this situation is going to engender during year 2015 :
. the return of the gold as the safe investment with the rise of its value.
. the crisis of the petroleum industry and particularly the swindle of the oil of schist.
. a major risk on the oil markets.
. a continuation of the crises in crises.
. a continuation of the disorder in the field of the speculation.
. a continuation of the economic, financial, social crisis with appearance of riots.
. a continuation of the fall in prices of the real estate. (Explosion of the "bubble" ?)
Year 2015 will also see :
. the strengthening of the influence of China in Europe, in spite of a possible explosion of a bubble in China (debt - real estate - stock exchange).
. the strengthening of the bilateral relations between China and India.
. the rise of the BRICS and its partnership growing with Africa.
See in this connection the International Current events thanks to the following link :
International Press review 24H/24H and 7D/7D
We shall attend in pursuit of the battle of influence enter the Bank of the BRICS (International Bank of Development + Reserve Fund), created in July, 2014 in Brazil in front of International Monetary Fund (IMF) and of the World Bank ( BM). Can they really compete with them ? (Initial capital of the BID amounts to 50 billion dollars $US, is four times lower than that of it World Bank - BM ; as for the reserve fund it will reach affect 100 billion dollars $US against 1000 billion dollars $US committed by the IMF ).
For the record, the financial and banking Institutions of the Euro Zone would detain some 806 billion Euros in Government bonds, so you don't need master mathematical financial to imagine the damages in balance sheets ... So, the war against the dollar $US is going to become intensified, as we specified it during our Forecasts Notes of the previous years. Russia supported by GAZPROM and NOVATEK signs large-scale Agreements with allowing China in the latter to pay its future Russian imports of gas and oil with yuans, at first, then with currency common to the countries of the BRICS , secondly. This one could be indexed to the gold. This zone of commercial and financial stability could become established and would be strengthened by the participation of Germany then that of other European countries not wishing to be stood apart.
From then on, the intensification of the anti-Russian war which we attend since a moment, on all the plans, the embargo of which the western economic and financial sanctions, in particular, cannot have for consequence that a direct confrontation between Russia and U.S.A.! Indeed, if the following plan confirms :
. GAZPROM or NOVATEK delivers in China the gas and the oil.
. China pays GAZPROM or NOVATEK in yuans (convertible into roubles).
. GAZPROM or NOVATEK finances an increasing part of its new investments in yuans.
. Russia imports more and more Chinese properties by paying them in yuans.
A new economic zone implying the BRICS and Europe would build up itself next to the dollar area $US shaking seriously the domination on the world of the American economic and political powers ... pulling the end of the globalization ? Doubtless the globalization in the American colors ?
The Reader will have understood it, whatever is the scenario, it feels " the singed " ! Especially with the appearance of a new international currency resulting the reduction in the credibility of the American currency ... So, in front of such a prospect, the American military-industrial lobby can only mobilize all his strengths against Russia and grow to a real war of big intensity under all its forms, mobilizing NATO/OTAN in the front line ... The world situation taking into account the distribution of the actors in presence, allied between them according to their respective interests, can thus result only on :
. regional and international conflicts.
. devastating consequences for the world Economy.
. a continuation in the increase of the price of the raw, food and energy materials.
. a continuation in the speculation on values such as the gold because safe investment in the uncertain times.
. a fall of the real Economy. And more exactly we shall attend in :
. an escalation of the conflicts in the Middle East.
. an intensification of the war in Iraq because of the tensions between Shiites and Sunnites and because of the Islamic Emirate (EI).
. an intensification of the civil war in Syria due to the foreign interventions.
. a threat between Israel and Iran further to possible failures of the negotiations with the U.S.A. (Israel will go from bad to worse).
. the continuation and the development of the violence in Afghanistan causing its instability after the withdrawal of troops of the NATO/OTAN and the strengthening of the Talibans.
. a serious crisis and an internal instability in North Korea caused by a military provocation and/or a nuclear threat.
. a possible armed confrontation between China and neighbors about territories competed at sea by China.
This is not an exhaustive list of the conflicts which are happening during year 2015, but perhaps they oblige U.S.A. to intervene diplomatically and militarily, because :
. the value of the military Budget U.S. in 2013 amounts to 643 billion dollars $US, is an amount equivalent to that of all the other countries of the world.
. the American Business of weapons continues to fly away in 2013, 2014 and 2015.
. it is 87 % of the financial exchanges which are realized in dollars $US.
. it is 81 % of the world trade that use the dollar $US.
. it is 8 American companies in the "top" to 10 who are the most powerful of the world.
It is the reason why the presence of the U.S.A. is omnipresent particularly in the Middle East, and it is for it also that the U.S.A. will never let an other currency taking the place of the dollar $US. See also in this connection the summary of the Thesis defense of Doctorate on the Middle East of October 08 th, 2013 to the EHESS (FRENCH SCHOOL FOR ADVANCED STUDIES IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES) - Paris - FRANCE :
"Summarized by the Thesis defense of Doctorate on the Middle East to the EHESS - Paris - FRANCE, in 10/08/2013" So, some " socioeconomic indicators " are still confirmed such as :
. the liquidation of numerous companies.
. the disappearance of certain economic activities.
. he temporary and/or precarious continuation of the job creation.
. the continuation of the mad drive of the military expenditures for the benefit of whom ? And of what ?
. the continuation of the increase of the unemployment rate by the job cuts, in particular the not job creation, this always at the world level and not by report in cases of specific countries.
And in this frame and this context of crisis/recession/transfer concerning the "growth" ? "Pipo" ! ("Loopy-Loope" !)
Finally, and beyond the essential energy factors such as the oil and the gas, such as they are of schist or not, in the form of bituminous or other sands (extremely polluting), they are sources of tensions and conflicts even of wars, because in reality main stakes activating the conflicts and as we announced it already fine of December 2013 about year 2014, the energy crisis will continue throughout the year 2015, as well as :
. the drinkable water shortage and all its consequences and the cost more and more raised by this one.
. the changes and climatic upheavals, among which the floods, disrupting any economic and social life pulling diverse dysfunctions as well as other costs not planned in the Economy.
. the chain of imbalance difficult to master, in brief, the management of unpredictable situations.
. the continuation of the rise in prices of foodstuffs causing a costliness of the life even a shortage of these.
. the distribution of the famine in the world owed to the climatic transformations evoked previously, besides the wars, having for consequences of the riots. In addition to what was previously expressed and to summarize year 2015, this one will also see :
. an alert and the slowing down on the world growth.
. tensions on the markets of the Debt.
. crises on the sovereign debts in Europe and in the U.S.A.
. geopolitical, political and institutional crises.
. unprecedented convulsions.
. tensions which aggravate.
. tensions in Europe and social unrests.
About the Environment and of the sustainable development, and the real will or not to reduce greenhouse gases as well as pollution developed by the industrialization, certainly hypothetical results are announced to us by pious speeches with big media reinforcement, but in 2020, 2030, 2050 or 2100 ... shall we still be there to testify of their expected results ? Human beings next generations concerned by the deep of these subjects in these dates will have doubtless "moved" ("mutated") ! Their major concerns will be then maybe simply : food, to drink, a roof, of the heating, and to be able to communicate with his (her) fellow men without " signals of smoke " ... But, let us be positive (insist on the positive aspects) !
On the other hand, the global distribution of the Ebola virus is to be afraid and could amputate the world of 800 billion dollar $US wealth (1,1 % of growth less in 2015). Without counting the costs caused by the necessary and current renewable energies, and the natural disasters ...
Thus, that the Reader retains : everywhere and on the whole Planet, the objectives are only essentially strategic and economic ...
And still, never let us forget to ask ourselves the essential question : what is the impact of the crisis/recession/transfer current on the real Economy ...? Good and a Happy Year of 2014 !
December 28 th, 2014
Dr. Marc LAMBINET, Ph.D
Observatoire Mondial Géostratégique S.A. Luxembourg