Year 2017 will be characterized by the pursuit of the restructuring of the world Economy within the framework of the "process of militarization", based on the economic recession (volunteer !) causing an unemployment of mass, the collapse of the social programs of the State and the impoverishment of millions of people, because we are always in systemic and structural crisis thus crisis/recession/transfer which continues. This year of 2017, as that of the 2016 and the previous ones, will also know deep transformations and major events.
The programs of militarization of the world Economy are always in the course of "Restructuring" . It is enough to observe military expenditures planned for 2017 and particularly the military expenditures of the USA about the war : they represent almost 5.000 billion dollars $US since September 11th, 2001. ( Source : Report of the University Brown - the USA). (The Budget of the Pentagon for 2017 is directed to a war against Russia and China and represents 583 billion dollars $US for the fiscal year 2017 !).
The bulk sales of armaments "explode" from 2004 till 2011 and continue in 2014, then 2015, and on 2016, and on 2017 ... The main exporting countries of armaments are the USA, Russia, China, France, Germany, Italy, then Great Britain, Spain, Ukraine, Netherlands, etc. (Source : SIPRI-Stokholm - Sweden).
The role of the media becomes intensified by the war of the manipulation and by the disinformation. A world war ( the Third) of stronger intensity becomes inevitable and inescapable especially with the convergence of the major risks which become clearer : 2017 will be a " world military escalation " and the regional and local conflicts hide a bigger one, as in a game of chess, the warned Reader will have understood well it.
The real war of Russia continues in Syria (2017 will be the direct confrontation with Russia), as well as the military strengthening against China by the " third phase " thrown by the USA, pulling the preparation of another war with China. The risks of a total military confrontation are increasing constant between both more nuclear major powers of the world : the USA and Russia. Everything contributes to the preparation of this nuclear war.
In fact :
. China, Russia, Iraq, Iran, Syria, North Korea, are the targets of a preventive nuclear war.
. the governmental persons in charge seem to want to decide resorting nuclear weapons and do not absolutely have the slightest idea of the consequences of their gestures.
. an inquisitorial Social Order takes shape everywhere.
. the modification of the weather report and the climate in fine servicemen (geography-engineering) can allow to destabilize the Economy, the ecosystem and the agriculture of a country (friend or enemy !). These technics of modifications of the environment to fine servicemen establish constitute the absolute weapon of mass destruction (this in the context of a current world large-scale war).
. thanks to the disinformation in the media (propaganda and manipulation), we give to the war a "humanitarian mandate" ..., yet, the war is not an inevitable process in itself in spite of the influence and the pressure of military-industrial complexes and can be avoided by popular social movements.
In light and concret, there will have more than 60 million displaced persons in 2016/2017 because of the war, the more the displaced persons because of ecocides or of climatic disasters, the more the people in town in precarious situation, the more the victims of the austerity and the beggary, etc... (Source : ORGANISATION RAND - Washington - USA, 2016).
See the words drafted in the beginning of 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 and which are always in force and accessible by the following links :
. YEAR 2009 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202009
. YEAR 2010 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202010
. YEAR 2011 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202011
. YEAR 2012 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202012
. YEAR 2013 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202013
. YEAR 2014 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202014
. YEAR 2015 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202015
. YEAR 2016 : http://www.omggwo.com/new/english/year%202016
For the period from 2001 to 2009 , the Reader can consult the former old Web site (2001 - 2009) in the menu and submenus "News" : the Forecasts announced then are still effective.
Year 2017 can be summarized in the following way, taking into account the chronology of the events announced previously then arisen since 2001 in this crisis/recession/transfer until now :
. globalization of the war and the economic crisis (war of the USA against the Humanity ?).
. austerity measures.
. media disinformation and propaganda.
. pursuit of the fight against terrorism "says" Islamic because this world threat of the "Islamic terrorism" takes the form of a "War Sainte-crusade" against the Muslims being maybe a member of a military strategy consisting in demonizing the enemy ...? (70 % of the world reserves of oil are situated in Muslim countries while 2,5 % of these reserves are in the USA ; Iraq possesses five times more oil than the USA.
. danger of a world nuclear war by the threat that USA makes press on Russia and China.
The development of asymmetric operations mixing the economy, the politics, the army, the technological support, etc... by hybrid wars at the instigation of the USA, of Russia, China, even India, within the framework of " strategic corresponding partnerships " in the respective interests of some and others, end only in a logic of stemming war of the " Theory of the chaos " : a real disaster ! (Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya). This is confirmed by the increase of hundred billion dollars $US of military expenditures for USA and European countries.
The Shanghai Organization of Cooperation (SCO) establishing a "rival capitalist block" ( Russia and China became capitalist Savings of "free market" after being "a Socialist-communists") with regard to the economic hegemony of the USA , represented by the New World Order dominated by Wall-Street and the military-industrial complex of the USA aggravate the tensions and the threats by his Sino-Russian alliance because the economic and financial rivalries between capitalist powers of the USA and Europe (EU) are in very great difficulties.
Moreover, the trend which gets free on a national and world scale leads to the centralization and to the concentration of the banking power, pulling a spectacular ute of the real Economy. From then on, we can only plan financial disorders and greater risks of this severe and word economic recession over the period 2016-2017 !
To convince itself of it, it is enough to observe closely the activity in 2017 :
. of oil companies.
. companies of the sector of the Defense.
. of financial Institutions.
. institutional medias.
. investors and sponsors of the war.
Because they make all left the warrior machine.
In fact, we are always in the continuation of the financial crisis of 2007-2008 which is the consequence of the consequences of that of the 2000-2001 (April-May on 2000) - (See our Forecasts Notes previous). That of the 2007-2008 was temporarily suspended and pushed away in the time by the FED-USA. (See bankruptcies of Banks Bear Stearns in spring, 2008 ; then Merrill Lynch in the beginning of September, 2008 ; and Lehman Brothers in mid-September on 2008, on 09/15/2008. With moreover, the forced " fusion " first two banks in trouble : JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America !).
So, it engenders One "Financial bubble" which will cause sooner or later in 2017 a terrible financial Crash pulling a major economic depression (financial rout) as well as a rush to sell in Stock Exchange. In brief, year 2017 will be chaotic for the world financial markets. (Financial and economic disorders. See in this connection the crisis of Southeast Asia in 1987 with Japan, and the deflation).
Year 2017 represents three different but correlated essential stakes :
. the first stake is the security of the USA and the militarization of the country and the countries, the strategic stake, because the crisis/recession/transfer is unprecedented and the road map is organized by the increasing militarization of the world (of the Humanity ?) : with the changes of regime, the attempt to delete the international terrorism and the terrorist networks, the multiple wars and without borders ("multiple to theater wars"), the militarization of the space, the militarization of the civil Institutions (Martial law, etc.), the development and the installation of weapons of mass destruction, etc.
. the second stake is the pursuit of the War in the Middle East, economic stake, which several theaters of war regional (Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen) and is a prelude to a vaster conflict ? The World War III ? The oil and the gas are the real objectives of this war in the Middle East because numerous oil companies are involved : anglo-americans, russians, chinese, european (which TOTAL-FINA-ELF ; ENI). This war in the Middle East aims only at taking up and monopolizing the resources in oil and in gas of the Middle East.
(70 % of the world reserves of oil are situated from Saudi Arabia to Caspian Sea while they are only 2,5 % in the USA). We can suppose that the following stage after Syria (See our Forecasts Notes of the previous years) will be Iran in 2017 when Israel ( the fifth world nuclear power) will be involved ? Where from the militarization of the China sea and the Strait of Taiwan because the Middle East and Central Asia occupy a position and a geopolitical and geostrategic role, in connection with China : the entrance of China to the World Trade Organization - WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION - WTO - is confidentially connected to the strategic stakes and military.
. the third stake at the world level is the rivalry between the dollar $US and the Euro even the Yuan, the financial and monetary stake, because we attend the attempt of the taking possession of the financial and monetary channels by the confrontation between rival financial and monetary power ! It is one of the most dangerous ! Indeed, the USA try to pursue the domination of the dollar $US on the world market of the capital to have a decisive role in the determination of the monetary policy of the other countries. From this perspective, the hegemony of the dollar $US could be finally affected definitively in front of the massive sale of the Treasury bonds of the USA ? The successive falls of Wall-Street would activate the recession at the world level ?
After all, the world Crash of 2008 will have been only a repetition of that of the 2017 ? because :
. the continuing recession produces the depression and the deflation (price drop !).
. the world economic crisis can cause the collapse of markets.
. the oil Economy is "in big disorder" and the attempt to reduce the consomation of oil and natural gas as well as "the sabotage" of the habits of purchase, can they precipitate Russia and China towards the ruin while sanctioning Iran ?
From then on, the privatizations are in progress everywhere (water, electricity, health services, nuclear war, etc.) because it is asked to the big companies of the military-industrial complex to formulate this politics of privatization of the war (nuclear power or not).
On the other hand, the future of the world food is under the influence of Multinationals in United Nations (UN/UNO - the USA) and the speculation on "the hunger" continues while :
. food crises will be more and more frequent for multiple reasons among which the futures markets.
. because of the regulation-deregulation-reregulation of the futures markets and the birth of indiciels funds on raw material.
. the speculative racing and "the denial" of reality.
. the theorists of the "do nothing"...
. the fatal consequences of the speculation on the physical markets.
How to go towards a purification of financial markets ?
So, concerning the big geographical zones, the Reader can consult the International Current events to the everyday life (daily paper) thanks to the following link :
International Press review 24H/24H and 7D/7D
On the projected plan the trends confirm for 2017, worth knowing pursuit of the world disorder pulling a new reorganization of the Arab World : In the Middle East :
It is the prefiguration in major changes which we shall attend in 2017 thanks to the presence of Russia, China, Iran :
(The Russian objectives in Syria are filled since 2015 of which the reassurance of the Mediterranean) . the commercial conflicts of interests (especially the gas and the oil) continue implying multiple factors in the same equation including Russia, the USA, Israel, Europe (EU, of which France), Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Yemen, U.A.E., etc.
. further to the invasion of the North of Syria and Iraq by the USA, NATO/OTAN, Turkey : is the "putsh" missed in Turkey a pretext to lay the foundations for a more vast war in the Middle East ?
. thus, direct implication of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the conflict of the Middle East, besides Israel, the USA, the NATO/OTAN, the Members of Council of Cooperation of the Gulf (CCG), among which Qatar, U.A.E., etc... and naturally the Islamic State (IS) more DAECH. On the other side, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah are busy ! (Military Escalation climbing in the Middle East).
. when's the Peace in Palestine ? Because in 2015, 2016, 2017 and beyond, the degradation of the economic, social, human situation, in the Gaza Strip and Cisjordania continues ... When's the creation of two States ? ...
. continuation of the "drawing again" of the Middle East by the USA, Great Britain, Israel, according to their needs and geostrategic objectives, having called in 2001-2003 the Region of "the Great Middle East", and having become in 2006, the "New Middle East"... The System "SYKES-PICOT" of 1916 is in "systematic crisis" ? And NEVER the local and regional populations are consulted ! (The Shiites and the Kurds are the big absentees of the SYKES-PICOT Agreements of May, 1916 !).
. opening of Iran in China, in the European Union (France + Italy), and in the USA. Strengthening of the economic and financial links between China and Iran for next ten years, with a 600 billion dollars value $US !
. continuation of "the deportation" of thousand refugees of the Middle East and of Africa towards the European Union causing the dislocation of announced Europe several years ago already. (See our Forecasts Notes of the previous years).
. awakening of the Palestinians, the Arabs and Muslims, particularly in the Middle East.
. disorganization of the market of the energy (gas + oil).
. future crucial and global role in the Middle East for the Shanghaï Cooperation Organization (SCO).
. the major problem in 2017 settling with a lot of acuteness in the Middle East and in Africa is the one borders inherited from Colonianism : the most arbitrary and distorted borders by the world are in the Middle East and Africa ! They were drawn by interested Europeans !
In Africa :
. continuation of the war in Libya with "military activity" along the most important coastal zones economically, energetically, strategically, for the seizure by the oil fields.
. preparation of new military operations in Libya by the western Powers, also in Africa.
. continuation of the political and economic crisis.
. continuation of the crisis about the refugees and social-economic upheaval in Europe by the migrants' massive influx ...
. more problems and "border dysfunctions" relative to what must to be mentioned higher.
. in spite of a "depressed" Chinese economic growth, more and more present China in Africa looks for "economic outlets" thanks to the construction of infrastructures, railroad networks, channels of navigation and irrigation, electricity networks, the improvement of the standard of living of the population, and try to bring it the Peace and the stability whereas others extend their wars there ...
. the Debt against numerous African countries is "illegitimate" ...
. the agribusiness is a "paving stone" towards the food dependence in Africa and the flight organized by Multinationals is legalized : the peasant seeds become illegal ? By new trade agreements ? Unsettled ...?
. continuation of the devastation of "Fund vultures" and the selling of arable land in the world, among which Africa and Latin America, on the background of flight of capital. (Africa, Mali, Congo, Libya, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Nicaragua, Greece, etc.).
In Europe - European Union (EU/UE) :
. dislocation and destruction of Europe (EU/UE) politically, economically, socially, demographically, by refugees' welcome resulting from the Middle East and from Africa ...
. economic collapse of Europe (EU/UE) by the fall of financial markets and the massive redundancies.
. the "BREXIT" will not have had or few incidences on the United Kingdom, except for the next very likely secession of the Scotland, but will pull a fast and irreversible dislocation of Europe (EU/UE).
. the continuation and the extension of the wars, here and there ..., causes a constant and inevitable weakening of the European Union on all the plans (economic, financial, political, social, etc. ...) and particularly because of the wars and because of the situation in the Middle East, in Africa, etc.
. the "uncontrolled" migratory flow : Europe (EU/UE) is the gravedigger of its own cause and a victim of its own turpitudes ...
. the Greek Debt, the Spaniard, Portuguaise, Irishwoman, Italian, etc. is illegitimate ... : to suspend immediately the program of austerity and the payment of the Debt ?
. Europe (EU/UE) of Regions should replace a technocratic European Union showing itself incapable to face the big challenges of our time !
In North America :
. is the strategy of the USA a military escalation allowing to save their hegemony ? Because the progressive and constant loss of their power all over the world in a way concomittante with the escalation of the tensions in front of Russia and China it would not be a shape of despair ?
. NATO/OTAN adds the "chaos" instead of bringing the stability by endless wars.
. there is an US Plan of crushing the Russian Finance (2016-2017).
. the USA refuse to see the world which changes, the balances which modify, the "emergent" which assert themselves ..., thus continuation of "attacks" against the BRICS ?
. the impossibility for the Economy of the USA "to go out of the rut", because the American labor market relapses, the economy takes a nose dive and no signs of upturn in the Economy (nor of economic growth), extreme weakness of the investments of companies, not much creation of new production units, no capacities to the massive creation jobs.
. continuation of the recession in 2017, continuation of the increase of unemployment and financial disorders because in deflation (increase of the Debt of companies in the USA) : the refund of the American Debt (20.000 billion dollars $US) is mathematically impossible.
. preparation for the USA of the end quotation of precious metals and "the locking" of official price of the dollar $US ?
In Latin America :
. the socioeconomic disparities become more marked in a inevitable way as well as the debts and the anti-authority movements.
. implementation of a new political card for the whole continent consecutive to the end of a cycle : the USA and the Wall Street place "their pawns" neo-liberal.
. continuation of the crisis in Brazil, in Venezuela, in Argentina, in Colombia and fall of the economic activity ; exhaustion of the Revolution in Ecuador.
. persistent weakness of the economic activity, the austerity policies, the ever paid off debts.
. the investment : the public cannot or cannot any more, the private does not want.
. plunder of the lands of the natives.
. world cornering of farmlands in 2016/2017/2018 : low hand on farmlands in the middle of a crisis food and financial: scale and impact ?
In Asia / Oceania :
. the Economy of China surpassed that of the USA also it represents an existencielle threat for the western Economy.
. the economic malaise of China is caused by the Chinese slowing down of the Economy (3 in 4 % of growth for 2017 ?) and the product of world trends in the recession ; but, and any doubt, China having followed the technological and productive path of Germany, will have the superiority upon the Economic isolationism of USA and on its world militaristic strategy !
. China, Beijing, has just inaugurated its Bank of Investment and Asiatic Infrastructure ( BIAI) which could shade in unstable World Bank (WB/BM) checked by the USA, especially as the dollar $US, the destructive monetary system, is in "bankruptcy" !
. China, Russia, Iran, train three poles of "the Eurasian integration" in the "displeasure" of the USA and thanks to the AIIB, the Fund of the Silk Way, the NBD Bank of Development in the future, and "a belt, a Sea route "for "integrated Eurasia" !
. in spite of the financial and economic duality : either the "old" dollar $US based on "nothing", or the new steady Chinese Yuan and indexed by the Gold, the level of record debts of China directs this one to a financial crisis of type Lehman Brothers or a prolonged period of low growth.
. the demand of oil in progress (whith China) and the shrinkage of the supply pull the practices of "hybrid wars" on the whole front and everywhere, so creating a recession to assure the continuation of the chaos ... Other possibility, let certain banking besieged systems sink, but who knows ? The dominoes theory ... ?
. the progressive and constant threats between China and the USA (and vice versa) for the control of the sea routes in Sea of China : confrontations ? Sino - American ? Conflicts in Asia-Pacific-Océania in 2017-2018 and beyond ? (Where from the Operation "Pivot on Asia") ?
So, what currency you will use ?
In reality, the continuation of the reduction (diminution) of the World Economy (the Central Banks of industrialized countries have no chance to invert the Cycle of reduction in the World Economy) and the fall of the oil price in 2016 contributed to the deflationary trends (price drop) ! (See our Forecasts Notes of the previous years).
The western fiduciary monetary system based on the dollar $US is breathless and comes to the end of the road ... This one is pressed on the "wind", certainly not the gold, nor even on the economic production of the country or the countries which emit it, that is the USA and Europe.
The "big crash in 2016-2017-2018 and more" further to the artificial global economic crisis said about "mortgages" United States (subprimes) of 2007-2009, herself consecutive of the hanging arms race the Cold War will pull the austerity, the chaos, the poverty, the famine, the poverty, the death ...
The low world demand causing the result of the weakness of the investments led to the financial volatility, itself leading to the reduction of the investments and lower even more the demand ... This low world demand prolonged and associated with the financial turbulence creates a risk of "buckles of active feedback" between the real Economy and the financial markets. This situation generates the deflation and the "permanent stagnation" that we have already mentioned in our previous Forecasts Notes. (See Notes 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016).
The Financial System will go badly by the progressive implementation of a Russian-Chinese rival monetary system based on the Yuan (reason why Central bank of Russia does not intervene to limit the fall of the rouble in a parallel to (at the same time as the tumble of oil prices) and with regard to that of the USA in dollars $US because :
. we attend the domination of Banks at the heart of States.
. the corruption is for the assault of States : the mafias gangrene the world and real Economy ...
. the Central Banks are in the service of the financial oligarchy.
. the income of the middle class is in constant decrease, thus this one is in constant impoverishment.
. austerity policies continue.
. the structural measures are absent.
. due to the lack of the resumption of the investments.
. the real Economy is in progress of systematic destruction.
. the diverse dangers of the privatization of the russian economic and financial activities belong to "an Atlanticist strategy" !
In short, year 2017 will know :
. a fast deceleration of the world Economy and a fall of the economic activity !
. a crisis of confidence in financial markets.
. a Debt of emerging markets.
. a price drop of raw materials.
. a new panic of Banks with regard to the financial crisis being outlined in 2017 and consecutive of that of 2008.
. a panic grant holder pulling a new crisis of confidence generalized in the health of the financial system.
. a total lack of an expansionist monetary policy.
. a final result by a new acceleration of the growth of the social inequality, the massive destruction of the productive activity thus the continuation of massive redundancies, the vast impoverishment of the working class, the fantastic enrichment of the parasitic financial oligarchy ...
. the conditions having given birth to the financial crisis of 2008 which will be reproduced under an even more extreme shape with the risk of a similar result, because eight years after the financial Crash of 2008, the capitalist Governments and the Central Banks answered none of the underlying causes ...
The world Economy continues to stagnate after these eight years of financial crisis with its prize of banking bankruptcies, the collapse of the credit, the financial crisis, etc. And the Gold and the Stock Exchange : a new Bretton Woods ? This world capitalist crisis engendering the national and private Debts lead in an unbearable draining on the economic activity. This destabilization of the world Economy causes grave financial, economic and political events : the STRUCTURAL REFORMS ARE NECESSARY ! The increasing fear of financial markets is very present that big quantities of liquid assets injected in the Financial System since 2008 made nothing to improve its in-depth solidity, and have on the contrary, sow the seeds of a Crash in a vaster scale ... Thousands of billions of dollars $US were injected in the Financial System by the Federal American Bank - FED - the USA (Federal Reserve) for many years and used to finance one "Stock-Exchange speculative bubble" so creating the conditions of a new major financial crisis (idem on emerging markets) ... We do not stop writing it for many years ...
It is the calm before the storm: the next and devastating world géopolitico-financial and economic storm is for 2017.
The International Monetary Fund - IMF -(INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND) (Washington - the USA) warns against this record world Debt, at the same time as the increase of the geopolitical, geostrategic and economic tensions while emitting a new warning on the world Economy with the reduction in the Chinese exports, thus a new weakening of the world Economy, pulling difficulties in the banking balance sheets and the hardening of the methods of financing ! This one (IMF/FMI)-(INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND) + the Central Banks of the USA, UK, Japan, Switzerland, EuroZone possess 23.349 tons of gold in stock. Or approximately 1,3 billion of dollar $US in the going price of the gold. What will happen to the total collapse of the western fiduciary system (already begun for more than 2 years !) : the return in "the gold standard" thanks to China, Russia, etc. (Chinese Yuan and Russian Rouble supported by the gold) ?
So, the "structural deficits" and the Debt are a permanent danger for the World Economy ! Because the crisis of the capitalism is global and its contradictions are insoluble at the level of the system of Nation states while threatening to pull the Humanity in a World War III ... of nuclear type ... !
Merry Christmas 2016 and Happy New Year on 2017 !
December 25 th, 2016
Dr. Marc LAMBINET, Ph.D
Observatoire Mondial Géostratégique S.A. Luxembourg